4. Warnings

 

4.1  CBO forecast  March 27, 2025

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently released its long-term budget outlook and showed that budget deficits are on track to widen in the years ahead, pushing the national debt well above the size of the U.S. economy. The CBO's budget forecasts that the debt held by the public as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to rise from 100% this year to 156% of GDP in 2055. That would be a full 50 percentage points higher than the current record, which was set in 1946 as the U.S. began its post-World War II demobilization. Growth in the national debt will be driven by budget deficits widening from about 6.2% of GDP in 2025 to 7.3% in 2055 – well above the 1995-2024 average of 3.9%.

 

 

4.2  Moody´s rating  May 16, 2025

Moody's Credit Ratings lowered the US credit rating one notch to AA1 from AAA on May 16th 2025, amid concerns over rising debt and interest payments. Moody's followed Fitch Ratings in downgrading the nation to AA+ from AAA in 2023 and Standard & Poor's in 2011. The agency said it expects federal debt to increase to around 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% last year. Meanwhile, the federal deficit is expected to widen, reaching nearly 9% of GDP by 2035, up from 6.4% in 2024, due to rising interest payments on debt, advancing entitlement spending, and reduced government revenue through tax cuts. In general, a credit rating is used by sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and other investors to gauge the credit worthiness of the United States thus having a big impact on the country's borrowing costs. This page includes the government debt credit rating for the United States as reported by major credit rating agencies.

4.3 Global bonds tumble as flaring inflation spooks investors

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on May 15, 2026

By Amanda Cooper, Karen Brettell, Laura Matthews and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

Bond Markets React to Inflation and Global Events

LONDON/NEW YORK, May 15 (Reuters) - Bond markets are bracing for interest-rate pain in a way they have not in decades, as investors assess the economic costs of the war with Iran and how the global economy will bear those burdens.

U.S. Treasury Yields and Inflation Concerns

Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hit their highest in around a year on Friday, two days after the government sold 30-year bonds at the highest yield since 2007, as traders anticipated the Federal Reserve would be forced to hike rates to rein in inflationary pressures stemming from energy shocks.

Rising Treasury yields have a broad impact on other assets around the globe.

Impact on Borrowing and Consumer Behavior

“With sticky inflation, higher rates are going to be here for longer," said Seth Hickle, portfolio manager at Mindset Wealth Management in Indianapolis, who said this would have ripple effects on home buying, corporate lending and purchasing power. Benchmark Treasury yields are the government security most influential to mortgage rates.

 

4.4  30-year US Treasury yield hits highest level in 19 years

CNN   MAY 19 2026 

New York — By John Towfighi 

A bond rout is deepening as inflation fears take hold of the Treasury market, threatening to raise borrowing costs across the US economy.

The 30-year US Treasury yield just hit 5.2%, its highest level since 2007, rising on worries about persistent price hikes because of the Iran war. Unsustainable government finances and interest rate hike fears have also sent investors pouring out of Treasury bonds. Yields rise when bond prices fall.

 

The war with Iran has ignited a global energy shock, with oil and gas prices at their highest levels in four years while the critical Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. That has started to seep out into other parts of the economy, including food prices and airfares.

“Bond markets are warning that inflation could prove much stickier than many investors anticipated,” Nigel Green, CEO at deVere Group, said in a note.

The benchmark 10-year yield, which influences mortgage rates, surged to about 4.67%, its highest level in over a year. Bonds are sensitive to inflation, and investors are demanding higher yields to compensate for the risk of higher consumer prices eating into the value of their returns.

The Treasury market helps set borrowing costs across the economy. Higher yields can ripple through to higher mortgage rates, auto loans and rates on business loans. Higher yields can also pose a headwind for the stock market.

The United States isn’t alone – investors have been selling off bonds around the world on inflation concerns. Meanwhile, angst about government spending and persistent deficits continues to linger, prompting investors to demand higher yields to hold long-term government debt. The 30-year UK gilt yield hit its highest level since 1998. Japan’s 30-year bond yield hit its highest level on record.

The rise in yields also reflects investors’ expectations that central banks will need to do more to halt the recent surge in inflation. US consumer prices in April rose at the highest annual rate in three years, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“The forces driving the sell-off – fiscal deterioration, defense spending, sticky inflation, central bank paralysis – are not resolving in the next week. They are getting worse,” Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global chairman of research at Barclays, said in a note.